Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Community Health Centre Systems in Ghana: A Methodological Assessment

Community health centres in Ghana are pivotal to the national healthcare system, yet their performance metrics can be challenging to evaluate due to variability and dynamic changes. A comprehensive review of existing literature on community health centres in Ghana was conducted. A time-series forecasting approach, incorporating ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) models, was employed to forecast system performance based on historical data from selected health centres. The analysis revealed a consistent upward trend in the number of patient consultations over five years, with an average increase of 5.2% per annum. This study provides evidence for the effectiveness and reliability of community health centre systems in Ghana through robust forecasting models that can inform policy decisions. Further research should focus on evaluating model accuracy across different regions to ensure generalizability, while continuous monitoring is essential for timely adjustments based on forecasted outcomes. Community Health Centres, Time Series Forecasting, ARIMA Model, Healthcare System Reliability, Ghana Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.