African Journal of Pharmacology and Therapeutics (Medical/Clinical focus) | 14 July 2006
Methodological Evaluation of District Hospitals Systems in Ghana Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Reliability Measurement
K, o, f, i, A, g, y, e, i, w, a, ,, S, e, k, y, e, r, e, A, s, a, r, e, ,, Y, a, w, O, d, u, r, o
Abstract
Ghana's healthcare system faces challenges in managing district hospitals' operations efficiently. Time-series forecasting models were applied to historical data from Ghanaian district hospitals. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was used, with uncertainty quantified through robust standard errors. The forecast accuracy suggests a potential need for resource reallocation in certain wards within the system (e.g., a 15% variance between actual and predicted patient admissions). Time-series forecasting models can be effective tools for assessing district hospital system reliability, with specific insights into ward-level performance. Investigate targeted interventions where forecasted discrepancies are significant to improve system efficiency. forecasting, time series, ARIMA, healthcare systems, Ghana Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p<em>i)=\beta</em>0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.