Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Cost-Effectiveness of Community Health Centres in Kenya: A Methodological Assessment

Community health centres in Kenya are pivotal for healthcare delivery but their cost-effectiveness is often under scrutiny. A comprehensive analysis was conducted using time-series data from Kenya's Ministry of Health. The study employed an ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model to forecast future cost-effectiveness measures. The ARIMA model showed a clear upward trend in the cost-effectiveness scores, with an estimated increase of 15% over the next five years. This study provides robust evidence on the evolving landscape of community health centres' efficiency and cost-effectiveness in Kenya. Based on these findings, policymakers are encouraged to allocate resources strategically to ensure sustainable service delivery. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.