Bayesian Hierarchical Model Assessment of Community Health Centre Systems in Kenya: A Methodological Evaluation

Community health centres (CHCs) in Kenya are critical for delivering healthcare services to underserved populations. However, their performance and reliability vary significantly across different regions. A Bayesian hierarchical model was employed to assess the reliability of community health centres (CHCs) across Kenya. The model incorporates spatial and temporal dependencies to account for regional differences and temporal trends. The analysis revealed significant variation in system reliability between regions, with some areas experiencing up to a 30% higher failure rate compared to others. Bayesian hierarchical models provide valuable insights into the variability of CHC systems across Kenya. This novel method can aid in targeted interventions to improve service delivery and patient outcomes. Health policymakers should consider regional differences when planning health resource allocation, particularly focusing on areas with higher failure rates identified by this model. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.