African Journal of Pharmacology (Core Science) | 22 September 2010
Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centre Systems in Senegal: A Time-Series Forecasting Model for Cost-Effectiveness Assessment
M, o, h, a, m, e, d, D, i, o, p, ,, I, s, s, a, N, d, i, a, y, e, ,, F, a, t, o, u, m, a, t, a, S, a, l, l
Abstract
Community health centers in Senegal face challenges in resource allocation and service delivery efficiency. A systematic literature review was conducted, focusing on existing models of community health centre performance evaluation. A time-series forecasting model with ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology was developed for forecasting future costs and benefits. The analysis revealed that a significant proportion (35%) of healthcare resources are underutilized across Senegalese centers, indicating potential inefficiencies in service delivery. Implementing the proposed ARIMA-based forecasting model can help identify optimal resource allocation strategies to enhance cost-effectiveness and improve service efficiency. Senegal should prioritise investment in training healthcare workers and improving infrastructure to optimise centre performance using the forecasted model. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p<em>i)=\beta</em>0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.