African Pharmacognosy Research (Core Science) | 27 August 2008
Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centre Systems in South Africa Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for System Reliability Assessment,
B, o, n, g, a, n, i, D, l, a, m, i, n, i, ,, S, i, f, i, s, o, K, h, u, m, a, l, o
Abstract
The evaluation of community health centre (CHC) systems in South Africa is crucial for assessing their reliability and effectiveness over time. A time-series analysis was employed using $ARIMA(p,d,q)$ model equations to forecast future trends in the number of patients visiting CHCs. The ARIMA(1,1,1) model showed a significant reduction in forecasting errors by up to 20% compared to previous models. The findings underscore the importance of using robust time-series forecasting methods for enhancing the reliability assessment of community health centre systems in South Africa. Integrate ARIMA forecasts into routine planning and resource allocation strategies within CHCs.