Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)

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Forecasting Clinical Outcomes in Ugandan Community Health Centres Using Time-Series Models: A Methodological Evaluation

Muhumuza Kizza, Gulu University Kigozi Nakawa, Department of Epidemiology, Makerere University Business School (MUBS) Semedi Kyeyune, Makerere University Business School (MUBS) Erlich Nabwange, Department of Clinical Research, Gulu University
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18921516
Published: December 25, 2011

Abstract

Community health centers in Uganda are pivotal for delivering essential healthcare services to underserved populations. However, their ability to predict and manage clinical outcomes effectively is often constrained by data limitations. A systematic approach was employed, involving a review of existing literature on time-series modelling techniques relevant to healthcare data analysis. A subset of Ugandan community health centre records from - were selected for the study, focusing on key clinical indicators such as patient admissions and chronic disease management. The implementation of an ARIMA model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) demonstrated a mean absolute error reduction of 15% in forecasting future outcomes compared to previous methods. Key findings highlighted the importance of consistent data collection practices and regular health education programmes in improving forecast accuracy. This study validates the utility of time-series models for enhancing clinical outcome predictions at community health centers, particularly when combined with robust data management strategies. The adoption of standardised data collection protocols and continuous training initiatives are recommended to further enhance the forecasting capabilities of Ugandan community health centers. Uganda, Community Health Centers, Time-Series Forecasting, Clinical Outcomes, ARIMA Model Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Muhumuza Kizza, Kigozi Nakawa, Semedi Kyeyune, Erlich Nabwange (2011). Forecasting Clinical Outcomes in Ugandan Community Health Centres Using Time-Series Models: A Methodological Evaluation. African Pharmacognosy Research (Core Science), Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18921516

Keywords

Sub-SaharanAfricanMultiple-regressionTime-seriesEpidemiologyHealth-systemsresearch

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Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)
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African Pharmacognosy Research (Core Science)

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