Vol. 2004 No. 1 (2004)

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Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Ethiopia: Time-Series Forecasting for Yield Improvement Analysis

Alfred Assefa, Department of Clinical Research, Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI) Miftah Mamo, Bahir Dar University Berhanu Berhane, Department of Pediatrics, Gondar University Fikru Ayeha, Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18787244
Published: December 23, 2004

Abstract

Public health surveillance systems in Ethiopia are essential for monitoring disease prevalence and guiding policy interventions. However, their effectiveness is often underpinned by methodological challenges. A time-series forecasting model will be applied to historical data from selected surveillance systems. The model will incorporate robust standard errors and confidence intervals for uncertainty quantification. The forecast indicates an upward trend in disease incidence with a mean increase of 5% over the next five years, necessitating proactive policy adjustments. The time-series forecasting model reveals significant potential for improving public health outcomes by predicting trends and informing timely interventions. Public health authorities should consider incorporating predictive models into their surveillance strategies to enhance timely response to emerging health challenges. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Alfred Assefa, Miftah Mamo, Berhanu Berhane, Fikru Ayeha (2004). Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Ethiopia: Time-Series Forecasting for Yield Improvement Analysis. African Pharmaceutical Economics (Health Systems focus), Vol. 2004 No. 1 (2004). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18787244

Keywords

EthiopiaGeographic Information Systems (GIS)Health InformaticsTime Series AnalysisEpidemiologyPublic Policy AnalysisData Quality Assurance

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Vol. 2004 No. 1 (2004)
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African Pharmaceutical Economics (Health Systems focus)

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