Journal of Migration, Conflict, and Human Security in Africa (Social/Humanities | 21 August 2007
Methodological Evaluation of Smallholder Farm Systems in Tanzania Using Time-Series Forecasting Models
M, b, i, t, a, M, i, h, e, l, a, t, u, ,, K, a, m, a, s, i, K, i, b, w, o, g, a, n, i
Abstract
Recent studies have highlighted the importance of smallholder farm systems in Tanzania's agricultural sector. A systematic literature search was conducted using databases such as Scopus and Web of Science. Studies were selected based on relevance to smallholder farms and the use of time-series forecasting models for efficiency measurement. Time-series forecasting models showed significant potential in measuring efficiency gains, with an average forecast error of ±15% across studies. The review underscores the effectiveness of time-series forecasting models in evaluating smallholder farm systems' performance. Further research should explore integrating multiple forecasting models to enhance accuracy and reliability. Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin<em>{\theta}\sum</em>i\ell(y<em>i,f</em>\theta(x<em>i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert</em>2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.