Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centres' Systems in Uganda Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Clinical Outcome Assessment

Community health centers (CHCs) in Uganda are pivotal for providing healthcare services to underserved populations. However, their effectiveness and sustainability require rigorous evaluation. A systematic literature review was conducted, focusing on empirical studies published between and . Studies were selected based on relevance to CHC systems, clinical outcome assessment, and the use of time-series forecasting models. Data synthesis involved thematic analysis and comparison. The findings suggest that while some CHCs employ time-series forecasting models effectively for predicting patient outcomes, there is variability in model selection and data quality across studies. Current methodological approaches lack standardised guidelines, leading to inconsistencies in model application. Future research should focus on harmonizing methodologies and improving data integrity. Developing a comprehensive toolkit for CHCs would enhance the reliability of clinical outcome assessments using time-series forecasting models. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.