Methodological Assessment and Time-Series Forecasting of South African Secondary School Systems Efficiency,

This scoping review evaluates methodological approaches used to assess secondary school systems in South Africa over a decade. A systematic search strategy was employed, including articles from databases such as JSTOR, Google Scholar, and Scopus. Methodological frameworks were synthesized using thematic analysis. The review identified a need for more robust statistical models in evaluating school system efficiencies, particularly in areas of resource allocation and student performance metrics. A novel time-series forecasting model is proposed to enhance the accuracy of efficiency measurements by incorporating dynamic data from various years. Policy-makers should consider adopting this new model for ongoing evaluations of secondary school systems to ensure effective policy implementation and outcomes. Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta}\sum_i\ell(y_i,f_\theta(x_i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert_2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.