Vol. 2004 No. 1 (2004)

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Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centres Systems in Uganda Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Kisaanya Tuyembe, Makerere University, Kampala Sserunkuma Obua, Department of Clinical Research, Makerere University, Kampala Magarama Nsubuga, National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18789103
Published: June 1, 2004

Abstract

Community health centres (CHCs) play a crucial role in the healthcare system of Uganda, particularly in rural and underserved areas. A systematic literature review was conducted to assess existing studies on CHCs' operational costs and service outcomes over time. Time-series forecasting models, such as ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), were applied to predict future trends in costs and effectiveness. The analysis identified a significant decrease of 15% in outpatient visits costs per year from data spanning five years, with an uncertainty interval of ±3.2%. Time-series forecasting models provided robust estimates for cost-effectiveness analysis, indicating potential savings and improved service delivery. Further research should explore the scalability and sustainability of these findings across different regions in Uganda. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Kisaanya Tuyembe, Sserunkuma Obua, Magarama Nsubuga (2004). Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centres Systems in Uganda Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. African Genetics and Genomics (Core Life Science), Vol. 2004 No. 1 (2004). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18789103

Keywords

African geographycommunity health centreseconometricsforecasting modelshealth economicslongitudinal studiestime-series analysis

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Vol. 2004 No. 1 (2004)
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African Genetics and Genomics (Core Life Science)

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