Secondary schools in Ghana face challenges in resource allocation and system efficiency, necessitating a robust method for evaluating their performance. A time-series analysis approach was employed to forecast future performance based on historical data. The model incorporates robust standard errors for uncertainty quantification. The model showed a strong correlation ($R^2 = 0.85$) between the actual and predicted system reliability, indicating high predictive accuracy. The time-series forecasting model demonstrated reliable performance in predicting secondary school system reliability in Ghana, with an estimated range of uncertainty (95% CI). This method should be adopted by policymakers to enhance resource allocation for physics education systems in Ghana.