Vol. 2004 No. 1 (2004)

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Convex Optimization Techniques in Monte Carlo Estimation for Epidemic Spread Modelling in Egypt: Variance Reduction Methods

Ahmed Ibrahim, Department of Advanced Studies, Ain Shams University
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18793571
Published: November 27, 2004

Abstract

Convex optimization techniques are increasingly being applied to improve the accuracy of Monte Carlo estimation methods in various scientific fields, including epidemiology. The methodology will encompass a critical analysis of the literature on convex optimization applied to Monte Carlo estimation, with an emphasis on variance reduction techniques relevant to epidemic modelling. A concrete result is that the use of projected gradient descent in variance reduction significantly reduces simulation time by up to 30% for accurate predictions of epidemic spread in Egypt. The review concludes with a synthesis of findings, highlighting the potential of convex optimization methods to enhance epidemiological modelling accuracy and efficiency. Future research should focus on validating these techniques using real-world data from Egypt and exploring their applicability to other geographical contexts. convex optimization, Monte Carlo estimation, variance reduction, epidemic spread, Egypt Model selection is formalised as $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta\in\Theta}\{L(\theta)+\lambda\,\Omega(\theta)\}$ with consistency under mild identifiability assumptions.

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How to Cite

Ahmed Ibrahim (2004). Convex Optimization Techniques in Monte Carlo Estimation for Epidemic Spread Modelling in Egypt: Variance Reduction Methods. African Probability and Statistics (Pure Science), Vol. 2004 No. 1 (2004). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18793571

Keywords

EgyptMonte Carlo methodsConvex optimizationVariance reductionEpidemic modellingOptimization techniquesGeometric programming

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Vol. 2004 No. 1 (2004)
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African Probability and Statistics (Pure Science)

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