A Case Study on Heat Stress, Climate Variability, and Gendered Livelihood Vulnerability in Juba, South Sudan

This case study examines the nexus between escalating heat stress, climate variability, and gendered livelihood vulnerability in Juba, South Sudan, from 2021 to 2023. It analyses how rising temperatures and erratic precipitation impact the energy-dependent, income-generating activities of women in the informal sector. The research addresses a critical gap in locally-grounded evidence on how climate extremes amplify gendered socioeconomic inequalities in urban African contexts. Methodologically, the study employs a rigorous mixed-methods approach. Quantitative analysis of meteorological station data documents trends in heatwaves and rainfall variability. These data are integrated with qualitative insights from in-depth, semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with 42 women market traders and food vendors, selected via purposive sampling. Thematic analysis was applied to the qualitative data. Key findings reveal a statistically significant increase in heatwave intensity, which participants directly correlate with reduced working hours, heightened physical strain, and spoilage of thermally sensitive goods. This exacerbates financial precarity, forcing acute trade-offs between health, income, and household energy expenditure for cooling. The study concludes that climate variability acts as a critical threat multiplier, intensifying existing vulnerabilities. It underscores the urgent need for gender-responsive urban adaptation policies that prioritise sustainable energy access and heat resilience measures to protect the most vulnerable livelihoods.