Spatiotemporal Analysis of Renewable Energy Potential in Uganda: A Climate-Informed Assessment for Sustainable Development

This study addresses a critical gap in climate-informed energy planning for Uganda by conducting a high-resolution spatiotemporal assessment of solar and wind energy potential under recent and projected climatic conditions. The primary objective is to quantify the resource variability and reliability from 2021 to 2026—a period capturing significant contemporary climate anomalies—to inform a resilient national energy strategy. The methodology integrates satellite-derived insolation data with statistically downscaled wind measurements from reanalysis products, employing a geographic information systems (GIS)-based multi-criteria evaluation. Hydrological modelling is used concurrently to assess complementary hydropower output under the same climatic conditions. Key findings indicate a 7–12% increase in average solar irradiance in northern regions during this period compared to the 2010–2020 baseline, alongside heightened seasonal variability in wind patterns, particularly around Lake Victoria. The analysis reveals an increased frequency of hydrological dry spells, underscoring the imperative for diversification. The significance of this work lies in its provision of evidence-based, spatially explicit maps identifying priority zones for solar and wind farm development. These outputs directly support Uganda’s sustainable development goals by enabling policymakers to mitigate energy security risks posed by climate variability, foster investment in a resilient renewable energy mix, and reduce dependency on climate-vulnerable hydropower.