Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013)

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Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Community Health Centre Systems in South Africa: A Longitudinal Study

Sifiso Mkhabela, SA Medical Research Council (SAMRC) Linda Dlamini, Department of Internal Medicine, University of the Free State Dumisa Ntshwana, Department of Public Health, University of the Free State Nokuthula Cele, Department of Epidemiology, University of the Free State
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18981301
Published: September 27, 2013

Abstract

Community health centres in South Africa have faced challenges in service delivery over recent years. A time-series forecasting model was employed to analyse data from to across multiple centres. The forecasting model showed an average yield increase of 5% in service delivery over the study period, with significant variance among different regions. This study provides a robust framework for evaluating and improving community health centre systems in South Africa using time-series analysis. Regular updates to the forecasting model are recommended based on ongoing performance data. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Sifiso Mkhabela, Linda Dlamini, Dumisa Ntshwana, Nokuthula Cele (2013). Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Community Health Centre Systems in South Africa: A Longitudinal Study. African Dentistry Journal, Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18981301

Keywords

Longitudinal analysisSouth Africacommunity health centrestime-series forecastingservice delivery challengespublic health systemsevaluation methodologies

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Vol. 2013 No. 1 (2013)
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African Dentistry Journal

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