Vol. 2010 No. 1 (2010)

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Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centre Systems in Senegal: A Time-Series Forecasting Model for Cost-Effectiveness Assessment

Mohamed Diop, Department of Surgery, Université Alioune Diop de Bambey (UADB) Issa Ndiaye, Cheikh Anta Diop University (UCAD), Dakar Fatoumata Sall, Department of Internal Medicine, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) Senegal
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18904400
Published: November 3, 2010

Abstract

Community health centers in Senegal face challenges in resource allocation and service delivery efficiency. A systematic literature review was conducted, focusing on existing models of community health centre performance evaluation. A time-series forecasting model with ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology was developed for forecasting future costs and benefits. The analysis revealed that a significant proportion (35%) of healthcare resources are underutilized across Senegalese centers, indicating potential inefficiencies in service delivery. Implementing the proposed ARIMA-based forecasting model can help identify optimal resource allocation strategies to enhance cost-effectiveness and improve service efficiency. Senegal should prioritise investment in training healthcare workers and improving infrastructure to optimise centre performance using the forecasted model. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Mohamed Diop, Issa Ndiaye, Fatoumata Sall (2010). Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centre Systems in Senegal: A Time-Series Forecasting Model for Cost-Effectiveness Assessment. African Journal of Pharmacology (Core Science), Vol. 2010 No. 1 (2010). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18904400

Keywords

Sub-SaharanAfricanSocioeconomicHealthEconomicsTimeSeriesAnalysisDataDrivenModelsEmergingInfectiousDiseases

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Vol. 2010 No. 1 (2010)
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African Journal of Pharmacology (Core Science)

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